Obama & Chavez

The story in Honduras gets curiouser and curiouser. Today, the archbishop of Honduras, Cardinal Oscar Rodriguez, called on President Zalaya not to return to Honduras at this time. That makes it almost every legislator from his own party; all of the opposition; the Supreme Court of Honduras; the military, and over 60% of his own people who want him to stay away as of today. Why?

It seems that AP and the New York Times cannot be bothered to report the real story. The Telegraph, however, fills in new details critical to understanding the genesis of the crisis. It seems that Mr. Zelaya was elected in 2005 by the smallest margin in that country’s history. The electoral courts had to decide the election. Zelaya’s popularity dropped steeply from 2007 onwards, and his own allies in the Honduran Senate began to desert him as he veered closer and closer towards his friend and ally, Hugo Chavez, the leftist dictator of Venezuela.

Faced with rising opposition, Zelaya tried to pack the court by appointing additional justices to the Supreme Court, much as Roosevelt tried to do in 1933 , which was swiftly declared unconstitutional by the United States Supreme Court, and which has been done by Chavez after repealing the Venezuelan Constitution in order to further his own political aims. Mr. Zalaya is also trying to rule by referendum. These can buy power much more easily that constitutional elections.

Zelaya then floated the idea several months ago of a referendum to scrap the current constitution, which was planned for this past Sunday. The ballots, printed in Venezuela, arrived in the country, but the Chief of Staff of the Army, who are responsible for their distribution, refused on the basis that this was an illegal election. The Honduran constitution specifically prohibits referendums within 6 months of an new election, which was to be held on November 29, so the referendum was by law called for illegally.

Zelaya has been seen by the majority in Honduras to have allied himself more and more closely with Chavez, who has supported leftists in Ecuador, Nicaragua, Argentina, and Bolivia. He is dearly hoping to add Honduras to this list. Yesterday, Mr. Zalaya disingenuously stated that he simply wanted to retire to his ranch.

President Obama is in a difficult position in Latin America. Anti Americanism has always been strong and has become much stronger since Chavez’s rise to power. Cuba was just recently admitted to the Organization of American States after being ostracized for 50 years. This was spearheaded by Chavez, and supported quietly by Obama.

Somehow, Mr. Obama seems to feel that by supporting Mr. Zelaya against the other three pillars of the Honduran establishment he will buy respect. Dictators, however, do not respect weakness. Mr. Obama should, in my opinion, steer a middle path. The interim president of Honduras has already called for early elections to resolve the issue democratically. Forcing the Honduran government into an untenable position will both strengthen Mr. Zelaya’s authoritarian bent and cause bloodshed. We have now a Honduran standoff, but it is up to the Hondurans to resolve this issue.